While they are working on a major feature for the magazine, New Hampshire journalists Kevin Flynn and Rebecca Lavoie have agreed to file blog items from the Granite State in the week before the primary. Here is Kevin’s first entry:
The winner of one, but probably not both, of the New Hampshire primaries will be determined by the huge number of independent voters here who get to cast ballots on January 8th. State law says registered, but “undeclared,” voters can pick either party ballot, then re-register as “undeclared” when they walk out. Voters with no party affiliation are now the largest plurality in New Hampshire.
In 2000, the invisible primary was fought between Republican John McCain and Democrat Bill Bradley. While most pundits watched how they fared against George W. Bush and Al Gore respectfully, those without party allegiance weighed McCain and Bradley. The lion’s share went to the Arizona Senator, who shocked Bush, 49%-30%. (According to a CNN exit poll, 62% of McCain voters were independents). Bradley, who only lost to Gore by 4%, might have caught the party’s eventual nominee with more independent support.
So who will the undeclareds line up behind in 2008? Not likely Clinton, Giuliani, or Romney--all have too much party appeal. That tends to turn off contrarian Yankees.
The invisible fight for independents may be among McCain, Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama. McCain is a nostalgic vote for some here, but his pro-war stance scraped the shine off his nickel. Independents might not embrace Huckabee’s religious nature, but his likable personality and sense of humor is attracting many. Obama seems to have makings of a great independent campaign (money, buzz, candidate of “change”), but will need a strong Iowa showing to close the deal.
Winning over the independents might be enough to upset a party’s presumed front-runner here in New Hampshire, but not necessarily enough to win a party’s nomination. However, it should be a decent bellwether of who could win votes outside their own party next November.
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Comments on this entry:
Since the Free State Project has chosen New Hampshire as its home state, I suspect that Ron Paul could surpass expectations by a considerable margin there.