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State/Side: State-By-State Predictions for Election Day 2012
  • November 03, 2012 : 15:11
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Georgia Georgia – 16

The heart of the Bible belt, Georgians certainly won’t favor Obama’s stance on gay marriage and probably lean closer to Mitt Romney on most socio-cultural points anyway. For the Democrats to shake anything up in this area, they’d need a strong home grown candidate. Or another Ross Perot siphoning votes from the right. Advantage: Romney.
Hawaii Hawaii – 4

Number of American presidents born in Hawaii: one. If you think for a second that the oft-forgotten state, garnering attention only during Pro Bowl season, is about to vote against their most famous embattled expat, you’re wrong. Advantage: Obama.
Idaho Idaho – 4

As Utah goes, so usually does Idaho; with a substantial Mormon population (about 25 percent), Idaho’s lean is not particularly difficult to decipher. Even without the Mormon vote backing Romney, Idaho has a track record of Republicanism; the last Democrat they elected was LBJ way back in ’64. Advantage: Romney.
Illinois Illinois – 20

Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. These are kingmaker states that decide presidential elections. If Obama is to win, he needs to hang on to the majority of them; if Romney wants the nod, this is where he needs to make some inroads. Illinois, Obama’s political homeland, is a safe bet to stay blue; it’s the state’s neighbors to the north and east that matter most. Advantage: Obama.
Indiana Indiana – 11

Since his upset win in Indiana on election night 2008, Obama has made numerous trips to the Hoosier State, which took a hard hit during the recession. Composed mostly of small, single-industry towns, Indiana has had a rough ride during Obama’s presidency, and another miraculous win seems out of the question. Advantage: Romney.
Iowa Iowa – 6

Iowa is largely considered to be the eye of the storm in close elections; their six electors can swing either way, but considering how close the Republican primary was, it may be safe to assume that Iowans aren’t really thrilled by any Republican candidate and may again favor the president. Advantage: Obama.
Kansas Kansas – 6

Kansas is another Republican stronghold, one that almost gave John McCain a clean sweep of its 105 counties in 2008. There is nothing in the polling data to indicate that sentiment is faltering, so we can safely tally another six electors for Romney. Advantage: Romney.
Kentucky Kentucky – 8

Another state in which the Democratic primary did not bode well for the embattled incumbent. With only Obama on the ticket, registered Kentucky Democrats favored wavering with “uncommitted” rather than throw their support behind the president. That spells trouble come the general. Advantage: Romney.
Louisiana Louisiana – 8

The polling graphs for Louisiana look startlingly dissimilar to any other state; whereas most states have consistent fluctuations (even if they vary in scale), Louisiana’s polling has seen the Republicans on a steady rise all through the campaign, never once dropping off for any reason. The Democrats? They’re flatlined somewhere around the 35 percent mark. Advantage: Romney.
Maine Maine – 4

Maine’s congressional district method of voting (one of only two states that does so) allows for their Electoral College votes to be split: two to the overall winner of the state and the other two to the winner in each congressional district. Since its inception a split has yet to occur, and with Obama polling well across the state, it looks unlikely that history will be made. Advantage: Obama.

Tally: Barack Obama - 102, Mitt Romney - 120

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  • Anonymous
    Rhode Island is where it's at..... gunshots in the water, supper boys at the ready. My finger of belief says Obama but I just hope these American groundhogs know good shit, bo.
  • Anonymous
    4 more years of Obama! My penguins are having a field day in the antarctic hay
  • Anonymous
    Supper boys are never ready outside of the flavorsome deep south - Romney all the way!