It seems like just yesterday that MLB Opening Day was here, and naturally, MLB.tv wasn’t working. You wait an entire offseason for that one day, and because of some satellite malfunction in outer space, our day was ruined – or so it seemed.
About two hours later, the satellites aligned, and boy oh boy, what an Opening Day it was! In a span of five minutes, four different afternoon games were decided on the final pitch, and that would set the tone for a wild ride through the final day of the regular season. The Cal Raleigh-Aaron Judge MVP debate will probably go on until next season’s first pitch, Shohei Ohtani created a new 50-50 Club with 50+ homers and 50+ strikeouts on the mound, and the New York Mets (the team with the second-highest payroll) missed the playoffs altogether. In the words of Jerry Seinfeld, “That’s a shame.”
But this is October, and we’re looking ahead to the 12 teams that will be scratching and clawing for every inch to get to the World Series. This truly is the best time on the American sports calendar, as we are treated to a multitude of offerings at once. However, none of these other sports match the true romanticism of October baseball. The one-on-one chess matches, the rawkus crowds, the underdogs taking down the heavy favorites – there’s nothing like it.
Which MLB Teams Got Byes in the Wild Card Round?
As for the Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, and Toronto Blue Jays – they get to sit back and wait until Saturday, as we sort through the opening-round chaos from Tuesday to Thursday (if necessary). Let’s take a look at all four MLB Wild Card Round matchups heading into Game 1 today:
Best Bets for the American League Wild Card Game 1
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
It all gets started with the AL Central race we had going down the stretch, as the Guardians clawed all the back from 15.5 games back to overtake the Tigers and win the division – and homefield advantage in the series. Cleveland got the best of Detroit during the regular season, going 8-5 in those games.
The Tigers (-115) are a slight series favorite, despite being on the road for all three games. Tarik Skubal gets the ball in Game 1, and he owned the Guardians during the regular season with a 0.64 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 28 innings (4 starts.) Gavin Williams goes for Cleveland, and he was equally as good against today’s opponent, going 2-0 in four regular season starts against Detroit with a 1.06 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 17 innings (3 starts.)
Williams can match Skubal in the opener, and the Tigers are a mess. The Guardians will likely deploy all right-handed starting pitchers (Bibee, Cecconi) during the series, and the Tigers scored 3+ runs against righty starters only three times in September. I’m going with the Guardians on sheer momentum at this point in the season, and they leave an extra game to spare before heading out to Seattle for the ALDS.
Tigers-Guardians Prediction: Guardians in 2
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bets
There are few settings in sports quite like the Bronx in October (late September for Game 1 if you want to be a jerk about it), but Red Sox-Yankees makes it must-see-TV. Boston had the upper hand during the regular season, winning nine of the 13 meetings, but it was New York taking some exception late, winning three of the last four.
The Yanks (-165) are mildly favored to win the series, and if we’re looking for reasons why, we could point to Max Fried and Carlos Rodon as the 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Since Aug. 18, the Red Sox have only faced 10 left-handed starters, and they scored two runs or fewer in eight of them – Fried and Rodon included. Unfortunately, Fried and the Yanks will have to go against a charged-up Garrett Crochet in Game 1, and that’s an unenviable task, especially with another lefty flamethrower, Aroldis Chapman, waiting in the bullpen.
This series will go the distance, with the Yanks getting the upper hand and moving on to Toronto. It’s not hard to imagine Crochet having an elite opener, but even if he’s “good enough,” Fried can absolutely turn it up a notch on this stage and outperform him. Bryan Bello will be a tough matchup in Game 2 as well, but I think the Yanks have the better bats to get this done, especially with Roman Anthony out for the Red Sox.
Red Sox-Yankees Prediction: Yankees in 3
NL Best Bets for September 30
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
You know that Spiderman meme? Well, this is basically the Padres-Cubs series – for the most part. Both teams have superstar bats underperforming, elite contact rates, elite defenses, but the pitching is where I believe the Padres will separate themselves from the Cubs, and that will set them up with a trip to Milwaukee in the next series.
San Diego had MLB’s best bullpen (3.06 ERA) by a wide margin, and they certainly have the better momentum when it comes to starting pitchers. Matthew Boyd gets the ball for Chicago in Game 1, but that’s not inspiring a ton of confidence, just as Shota Imanaga or Colin Rea. If it is Imanaga following Boyd, it should be noted that the Padres scored 5+ runs in their last three games against southpaw starters. The Cubs are in deep trouble this series, and I honestly don’t think this goes the distance.
Padres-Cubs Prediction: Padres in 2
Best MLB bets for Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Reds did the impossible, sweeping the Brewers on the final weekend to find themselves at Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers (-245), who are the largest favorite of any team to win their Wild Card Series.
As for the matchup on the field, let’s not go anointing LA the series winner just yet. We talked about momentum earlier with the other Ohio team (the Guardians) in the playoffs at the top, and I think we could see this doggy rumbling out West. First of all, you’re an absolute sicko to be laying -245 on the Dodgers with the current state of this current bullpen. In total, six different members of LA’s pen had an ERA over 5.00 this season.
This is a much older Dodgers team than most people are used to, and this could be the classic letdown spot from the heavy favorite. I’m not even sure the Reds know they have a chance in this series, but they have been in playoff mode for the last couple of weeks, and I believe that will carry over to this series.
Reds-Dodgers Prediction: Reds in 3
