It’s an AFC North showdown under the lights, and there’s plenty of value to be found in the player prop market for the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals matchup on Thursday Night Football.
It has certainly been a tale of two cities for the teams, unfolding in a way we never expected. At 4-1, the Steelers have surpassed early expectations, led by QB Aaron Rodgers and his lengthy experience around the NFL. Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point favorite on the road tonight, which is a point higher than the 4.5-point spread it opened at.
On the other hand, the Bengals saw their Super Bowl hopes fade away in Week 2 when they lost QB Joe Burrow (turf toe) indefinitely. Since then, Cincy has been in total disarray but still has two wins to show for it.
The total is currently at 43.5 points, down three points from the initial 46.5 offering. That probably means we won’t see a ton of points, but we’ll need to be extra selective in our process for tonight’s game.
Let’s see what odds are the most appealing for the Steelers-Bengals matchup on Thursday Night Football.
What are the Best Bets for the Steelers vs Bengals Thursday Night Football Matchup?
Aaron Rodgers: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
Rodgers just tossed a pair of TDs against a much better Browns’ defense on Sunday, and he’s in a great spot to do it again versus Ohio’s other NFL team, the Bengals. The aging vet still got it, and he’s thrown a TD in every single game this season. Granted, that’s not the highest bar we’ve ever set for the former MVP, but there was a time (not too long ago) when we weren’t sure if Rodgers would ever play in the NFL again.
Going into the season, we already knew Cincy’s defense would be bad. However, it won’t be long before we are embarking on “historic bad.” The Bengals are allowing the second-most passing yards per game (258.5), so the opportunities to find the end zone through the air have certainly been there.
Cincinnati allows the second-most red zone pass attempts per game (5.8) and third-most passing TDs (2.2). Notably, four of the last five opposing quarterbacks have thrown 2+ TD against the Bengals. Rodgers is looking quite optimistic to become the fifth in six games to accomplish this feat.
DK Metcalf: 60+ Receiving Yards (+100)
If Rodgers is going to have a productive night, Metcalf will likely be on the receiving end of it – pun intended. The star wideout has been heating up recently, racking up nine catches (14 targets) for 221 yards and two touchdowns across his last two outings.
Metcalf is a menace after the catch, and that matches up perfectly against a Bengals defense that is allowing the most yards after catch (69.4 YAC/game) in the NFL this season. Cincinnati has surrendered 50+ yards to nearly every WR1 they’ve faced — the lone exception being Jerry Jeudy, who missed by a single yard.
Noah Fant — Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Quietly, Fant has been a model of consistency in the Bengals’ passing attack. He’s posted receiving totals of 26, 28, 26, and 27 yards in his four games this year, which is right in the sweet spot for this prop line.
On the other side, Pittsburgh has allowed six tight ends to hit 25+ yards since Week 2. If the Bengals are forced into a pass-heavy script, Fant could once again see enough involvement to cash this over. He’s topped 25.5 yards in 13 of his last 19 games dating back to 2024.
