Thursday’s NBA schedule features just two games, including the Thunder-Pacers rematch from last year’s NBA Finals, as well as the Nuggets vs. Warriors, featuring two of the league’s best players.
Early on, we’re still trying to figure out rotations and how certain players will adapt to new settings. But the sportsbooks don’t have all of the answers yet either, and we can take some of what we saw last season and apply this time around.
For the most part, the teams playing tonight haven’t made a ton of wholesale changes. Then again, two of them (the Pacers and Nuggets) are making their respective debuts this season, and we really don’t know what to expect. Particularly, the Pacers, who will be without Tyrese Haliburton for the entire season.
This is what makes the NBA so exciting, in that a wide range of outcomes can happen any given night. Let’s take a look at some situations we can take advantage of and hopefully turn them into winning bets.
What are the Best Bets for NBA Games on Thursday?
Chet Holmgren: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)
Indy allowed the opposition’s centers to haul in 13.1 rebounds per game last season – 6th most in the NBA. Well, the Pacers lost Myles Turner in the offseason, so things could get even worse on the glass for the defending Eastern Conference champs.
Holmgren finished just under this mark, with seven rebounds, on Tuesday night; that came against a Houston team whose smallest player in the starting lineup was 6’7”. If you remember back to last year’s Finals, Holmgren got off to a dreadful start, but he came back strong with 8+ rebounds in four of the last five games against the Packers.
Pascal Siakam: Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
We just saw OKC in action on Tuesday, and versatile bigs like Alperen Sengun (39 pts, 11 reb, 7 ast) and Kevin Durant (23 pts, 9 reb, 3 ast) did their thing without much resistance.
As I mentioned in the intro, Indy will be without Haliburton for the season, which leaves Siakam to be the leader of this team. Of course, Indy gets a shot at revenge from last year’s Finals right away, adding some extra motivation to the situation. Speaking of last year’s Finals, Siakam exceeded 30.5 PRA in five of the seven games in the series.
Nikola Jokic: Over 11.5 Rebounds (-105)
Jokic has grabbed 12+ rebounds in 14 of his last 17 games against the Warriors, who didn’t do much in the offseason to improve down low. To end last season, Jokic eclipsed this mark in four of his last five games.
Golden State didn’t do much in the offseason to improve down low, so I’m expecting The Joker to come through on this prop once again. The Warriors only have one player listed at 7’0”, and he played only nine minutes in the opener.
Al Horford: Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
The Warriors will need to play their bigs a bit more tonight, going up against Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, so this should put Horford on the court long enough to cash in on this bet. Standing at 6’8”, Horford was the second-tallest guy on the roster, next to Quinten Post (7’0”), but he only played nine minutes and didn’t do much with his time.
In his first action with the Warriors on Tuesday, Horford played 20 minutes and posted 11 PRA (5 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast). We should certainly expect those minutes to be closer to 30 this time around, especially if guys like Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga find themselves in foul trouble.
