The Baltimore Ravens had a nightmarish start to the year. Losing to the Buffalo Bills after holding a double-digit lead very late in the fourth quarter seemed to break them, and they’d go on to lose five in a row and their star quarterback, Lamar Jackson. All seemed lost, but that was two weeks ago. There’s a very different vibe with better health, Jackson back, and two straight wins. But will it even matter?
Can the Ravens make history this year?
In the entire history of the NFL, just 1.1% of the time does a 1-5 team make the playoffs. It has only happened four times ever. The good news for Ravens fans is that three of those examples have come since 2015. The most recent example was the 2020 Washington Commanders, who snuck in at 7-9 thanks to a dreadful division.
The Ravens don’t have that luxury, as the AFC North is pretty solid, and the AFC as a whole is very deep. But they’ve reeled off two wins, had a bye week to rest, and got Lamar Jackson back. He casually tossed four touchdowns in a blowout win last night. With him, anything is possible, but do the Ravens have an actual path to the playoffs?
At 3-5, the Ravens sit 1.5 games back of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they play the NFL-leading Indianapolis Colts this week, so a loss is highly likely. That’d trim the gap to one game, making it entirely believable that the division title could go back to Baltimore. The Cincinnati Bengals are tied with the Ravens in the standings, but they’re missing Joe Burrow right now. All signs point to a Ravens comeback.
However, with five losses already, they can ill afford to lose many more. It is highly unlikely that anything more than seven losses will be enough to keep them out. Going 9-8 after their start would be good, but it’s not going to get them into the playoffs.
Fortunately, the schedule isn’t all that bad. Looking ahead, there are two games with teams that are currently better than the Ravens: the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers. The Ravens are going to have to split those games, which happen to come in Weeks 16 and 17. That stretch is going to define this season. Losing both would be catastrophic. The Patriots are good, but they’ve also had a fairly easy schedule this year. By then, we’ll know more about how good they are, but Drake Maye is likely to shred Baltimore’s secondary either way. The Packers look well-rounded, but they’re not wildly dominant on either side of the ball.
The Ravens also have five divisional games left, and those can be wholly unpredictable, especially if the Bengals get Burrow back. We can assume they’ll beat the Briwns, but the other four are hard. The Ravens are better, but going 5-0 in those contests is a big ask. The Athletic’s playoff predictor expects them to win the division at 9-8, but that might be a stretch. The predictor gives them a 71% chance to make the playoffs, and a 69% chance to win the North. The Steelers are the only threat here at 26% to win the division. So, for now, the odds are surprisingly good for a playoff run, but the margin for error is dangerously thin. Losing games they should win, which is a staple of the John Harbaugh era and 2025, would be hugely detrimental, so they need to completely lock in the rest of the way. So far, they’ve done that, although the Bears and Dolphins are not elite. The real test still awaits.
