It hasn’t been quite as good of a season for Josh Allen this year, and last night’s debacle might’ve officially put him out of the running for a second consecutive MVP award. There are a few really good candidates, and with Allen putting up another dud, it’s hard to see him winning the award again this year.
Josh Allen might not be in the MVP race anymore
It’s pretty difficult to really criticize any quarterback for struggling against the Houston Texans. They might have the best defense in the NFL this year. They sacked Josh Allen eight times and picked him off twice in a stunning Thursday Night Football upset. Most quarterbacks would also put up similarly bad numbers.
Unfortunately, most quarterbacks aren’t also in the MVP race. In some sportsbooks, Allen was the MVP favorite. Now, according to latest odds, he’s +1400, with three players ahead of him. That certainly doesn’t rule him out of the running with six weeks left, but it’s really hard to see him overtaking any of the three challengers, as well as some others nearby.
The favorite is Matthew Stafford. He’s got the numbers to back up his argument, as he leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and is the QB of maybe the best team in the NFL. What he’s doing is incredible, and he is deservingly in the race right now.
Drake Maye is right behind him and is equally as deserving, if not more. Maye has had an impressive season, and he’s doing it on what was a last-place team last year with very little help in the passing game. He also has a defensive head coach, so he’s not being schemed to success here.
The third, and most surprising, candidate is Jonathan Taylor. A running back being a legit, albeit long shot, MVP candidate at this stage is very uncommon. Saquon Barkley was special last year and didn’t win, which doesn’t bode well for Taylor, but he’s been nothing short of spectacular and deserves to at least be in consideration.
With a good game this week, Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, and others could also crowd Allen in that area. Regardless, there are simply too many viable options for Allen to play like he did last night and not suffer for it.
Allen’s having a good but not great season, and he is once again getting a lot of help in the yards-after-catch department. He is second in the NFL in passing yards, but that’s because he’s already played. He could legitimately slip to 12th after Sunday and Monday pass by.
He’s tied for seventh in passing touchdowns, but Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson (who is playing his eighth game this week), Daniel Jones, and Jordan Love could conceivably tie or pass Allen. He’s also tied for the third-most interceptions.
Rushing stats do help Allen, as he has 10 of those, but many are of the QB sneak or “Tush Push” variety, so they don’t necessarily add to his MVP narrative. Otherwise, Jalen Hurts would be much more relevant to this conversation, and he’s currently not.
Allen is also 10th in quarterback rating and 16th in QBR. None of this is bad, except for the interceptions. It’s just not good enough to be the MVP. Plus, while winning is not a QB stat, record does often play a role in these arguments, and the Bills are not having the best season.
There is an argument that Lamar Jackson should’ve won the award over Allen last year, and it doesn’t look like Allen has the case to win another one and silence the critics. Barring a massive turnaround, Allen won’t be back to accept another MVP award.
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