Look at us getting some Friday Night Lights in Middle America for the opening game of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff! We’re getting things kicked off the Alabama Crimson Tide hitting the road to face the Oklahoma Sooners.
The Sooners are slight 1.5-point favorites (-120 on the moneyline) with total currently at 40.5 points; Alabama is even-money on the ML.
Whether you’re chasing value or just hoping to avoid a sweat, we’ve got you covered with a breakdown of the best bets on the board.
Both teams have already squared off once this season, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the rematch – Oklahoma won 23-21 at Alabama back on Nov. 15. Familiarity can breed close games and, if recent history holds, points may be at a premium.
Factor in swirling winds and some less-than-stellar ground attacks, and we could be in for a grind-it-out affair rather than a shootout.
From total points to player props, tonight’s slate offers something for every kind of bettor. We’re zeroing in on value plays that combine stats, trends, and a dash of intuition.
So, before you lock in your picks, check out our top recommendations for Friday’s College Football Playoff—let’s make this a winning night.
Under 40.5 Points (-115)
One of the most interesting numbers I saw from this game was the massive juice to the under on 1.5 TD passes for each QB – John Mateer: -260, Ty Simpson: -178. Absolutely gross.
Neither QB threw multiple TDs in the teams’ first meeting, an Oklahoma 23-21 win, and it appears like the winds (which could reach 20 mph) during the game won’t help their case this time around. Not to mention, these teams both know what they can expect from each QB having already played one another this season – and for third time in 13 months.
It should also be noted that neither team has done well running the football – Oklahoma: ranked #100 (125.6 RYPG), Alabama: ranked #123 (103.8 RYPG). Expect plenty of boring play tonight, but we’re all about wins here.
Deion Burks: Over 3.5 Receptions (+155)
Hey, someone is going to have to move the ball at some point. I like Burks to be that guy tonight, at least in the receptions department. Burks has some maneuverability that can work on quick passes, and I’d imagine that fellow WR Isaiah Sategna III sees as much coverage as Bama can handle.
Burks has been targeted quite a bit, with at least 14 of them over the last two games. Those extra looks have only equated to 4+ catches in three of the last five games, but I do feel like Burks is up for the challenge here.
John Mateer: Longest Rush – Over 14.5 Yards (-115)
We already mentioned the potential windy conditions, and that could have Mateer taking off a few extra times. However, this one is of the “what have you done for me?” variety, with a rushing attempt of 15+ yards in four of Mateer’s last five games – and in 14 of his last 20.
Bama has also been quite generous at allowing these long QB runs, coughing up a run of 15+ yards to that position in six of the last 10 games.
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