If it seems like Cinderella runs are few and far between in March Madness, that’s because they kind of are. There are some low seeds that make runs, but the Cinderella story has changed significantly in the new era of college basketball. The days of a mid-major double-digit seed making a run to the Sweet 16 are all but over.
NIL and transfer portal may have killed the March Madness Cinderella
Take a look at the current Sweet 16. There is an 11 seed (Texas) that played a First Four matchup. That’s kind of a Cinderella March Madness run. There’s also a nine seed (Iowa) that defeated their region’s number one seed, the reigning champion Florida Gators. That is also kind of a Cinderella.
But those aren’t the Cinderellas of old. They’re not 15-seed St. Peter’s in 2022. For that matter, they’re not even eight-seed UNC in 2022. They’re not 2006 George Mason, 2008 Davidson, 2011 Butler, 2011 VCU, 2013 Florida Gulf Coast, or 2018 Loyola Chicago.
Those are small schools that made big runs. Iowa isn’t a small school, nor is Texas. Those are major programs that just didn’t have great seasons. The true Cinderellas from this year, like High Point and VCU, didn’t make it out of the second weekend.
Nowadays, that’s the reality for those mid-major schools that used to be able to dream about Sweet 16 runs. Now, winning one game makes you stand out as a Cinderella. NIL and the transfer portal have forever changed college basketball.
NIL changed everything
NIL means bigger schools, like Arizona, UNC, Michigan, and UConn, have money to spend on good players that smaller schools just don’t have. The transfer portal means that those mid-major stars who break out end up at bigger schools the next year. There’s no time to build up a team worthy of making a Cinderella March Madness run.
Players at small schools who perform well don’t stick around long enough to get a team into the NCAA Tournament to make a surprising run like that. And why should they? What does a player have to gain by staying at High Point when he can transfer to St. John’s?
There’s more money to be made there. There’s more exposure there, so if a player has any dreams of making it to the NBA, the transfer portal from a small school to a big school is almost a necessity. Players gravitate to the best programs, and that unbalances March Madness.
The folk heroes of old wouldn’t have lasted. Stephen Curry probably would’ve transferred out of Davidson. Gordon Hayward may not have stuck around at Butler. There are a ton of historical NCAA Tournament runs that would’ve been fundamentally altered by NIL and the portal.
NIL and transfer portal aren’t bad, but they do have downsides
This is not to say NIL and the transfer portal are bad. They have their issues, but they’re ultimately a change for the better and maybe a necessary evil now. Players shouldn’t be held hostage to a paper they signed when they were probably not even 18, and they shouldn’t be exploited by universities making billions without seeing a dime.
But perhaps the death of the Cinderella will force the NCAA to readjust. Perhaps they’ll rebalance NIL spending across the country so that there’s not a massive disparity in college basketball. Maybe they will set the transfer portal as a two-year commitment so players can’t transfer after just one year. Perhaps they’ll look at cases individually and determine the best course of action.
Or maybe they’ll just let the March Madness Cinderella die out completely. It’s experiencing a slow death now, and it’s something college fans are noticing. Does the NCAA care? Maybe not. If it does, then action is required. If not, then say goodbye to the NCAA Tournament of old. Big schools will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future.
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