We can call Week 5 the quarter-way mark of the NFL season. At this point, teams have each played four games, bye weeks officially come into play, and now we’ve got enough data and film to start making more educated guesses on what will happen.
As we approach Sunday afternoon, let’s take an early look at these matchups and find some anomalies in the markets before the lines go in favor of the sportsbooks. It feels like they’re always a step ahead these days, but looking at the opponents and how other players at the same position fared will give us some insight into what to expect.
The Week 5 slate might not have as many high-profile games like we saw last week – and that’s alright. We know the Cowboys suck on defense, you can’t run on the Browns, but you certainly can against the Titans.
Let’s see what’s in store for Week 5 of the NFL season!
Which Players Have the Best Matchups in NFL Week 5?
Justin Fields – QB (New York Jets) vs Dallas Cowboys
Prop: Over/Under 244.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
It really is as simple as picking QBs against the Cowboys. After all, this is the same defense that made Russell Wilson look like an All-Pro quarterback. Dallas has allowed three straight QBs to throw for at least 298 yards, but Fields can certainly add some yards with his legs, as evidenced by his 43-yard touchdown scamper on Monday Night Football last week against the Dolphins.
Alvin Kamara – RB (New Orleans Saints) vs New York Giants
Prop: Over/Under 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The Saints won’t have many opportunities to notch wins this season, so they better take advantage while they can – and keep their star player happy in the process. RBs have had great success against the Giants this season, allowing 80+ rushing yards to three different backs; two of them (plus another) had 30+ receiving yards. Well, Kamara can certainly do both, and I would expect him to have a monster day against the G-Men.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba – WR (Seattle Seahawks) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prop: Over/Under 80.5 Receiving Yards
WR1s have been targeted heavily against the Bucs, as guys like Drake London (15), Nico Collins (9), Garrett Wilson (13), and AJ Brown (9) have done some work. I would expect that trend to continue, considering how hard it is to run against Tampa. JSN’s targets have declined incrementally (13, 9, 6, 5) in each of the last four weeks, but he has still put up at least 79 receiving yards in each game this season. Based on the matchup, you have to imagine Seattle has extra plays on the call sheet designed specifically for Smith-Njigba.
Which Players Have the Toughest Matchups in NFL Week 5
Baker Mayfield – QB (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at Seattle Seahawks
Prop: Under 222.5 Passing Yards
Mayfield and the Bucs go into the NFL’s toughest road environment, which is already menacing, but they’ll also be doing it without Mike Evans and possibly Bucky Irving. In the last three games, the Seahawks haven’t allowed an opposing QB to throw for more than 220 yards.
Jordan Mason – RB (Minnesota Vikings) vs Cleveland Browns
Prop: Under 66.5 Rushing Yards
Mason draws the unenviable task of facing the Browns’ highly touted rush defense this week. Jahmyr Gibbs of the Lions finally broke through last week, with 91 yards on the ground, but that certainly hasn’t been the norm in this matchup. Cleveland is allowing an NFL-low 70.3 rushing yards per game. Perhaps the most mind-boggling number is that the Browns’ run defense halted elite RB talent like Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs to no better than 2.1 yards per carry in three straight games before last week.
AJ Brown – WR (Philadelphia Eagles) vs Denver Broncos
Prop: Under 57.5 Receiving Yards
Brown will draw a tough matchup against Pat Surtain II, who is arguably the best CB in football. With that being said, you have to imagine the Eagles lean heavily on the run against the Broncos on Sunday; teams are having far more success on the ground as opposed to the air. In fact, Denver has only allowed one passing TD in the first four games, and an opposing WR1 (Ladd McConkey) has only maxed out at 41 yards against Surtain
Which NFL Players Will Benefit the Most from Injuries in Week 5?
Jalen Waddle – WR (Miami Dolphins) at Carolina Panthers
Prop Bet: Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
Tyreek Hill suffered a knee injury on Monday night and is out for the season. Waddle immediately becomes the primary target for Tua Tagovialoa in this Dolphins’ offense, and he already had 5+ targets in each of his first four games, but now he will certainly pay off in a game that is essentially a pick ’em’ at this point, and this game could potentially wind up being a shootout.
Emari Demercado – RB (Arizona Cardinals) vs Tennessee Titans
Prop: Over 20.5 Rushing Yards
With the season-ending injury to James Conner and Trey Benson going on IR, Demercado goes into Sunday as the Cards’ RB1; Michael Carter will get some work as well, but this is Demercado’s job to lose. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL, so they find themselves playing from behind a lot and expecting the run. Well, they’re still not doing a good job of stopping it, allowing 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks T-5th for worst in the league.
Darius Slayton – WR (New York Giants) at New Orleans Saints
Prop: Over 3.5 Receptions
Malik Nabers went down with an ACL injury last week, and that will force him to miss the remainder of the season. In the two games Nabers missed last season, Slayton stepped up to the challenge with 14 catches (22 targets) for 179 yards and a touchdown. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is now the starter, giving Slayton a much better chance to see more balls coming his way.We’re back for Week 5 of the NFL season to give you the best prop bets, based on the matchups and line movements. After four games, we’re starting to build some tendencies that will make it easier for us to identify who we’re targeting, as well as who we’re staying the hell away from.
For instance, we now know that running against the Cleveland Browns should not even be attempted. Targeting the Dallas Cowboys’ defense has been profitable – Russell Wilson set the tone – and the Tennessee Titans could wind up being the worst football team ever assembled.
The Week 5 slate has a few teams (Bears, Falcons, Packers, Steelers) on bye weeks, so that does narrow down our choices a little more than the previous four weeks. But that’s alright, we’ve got data, film, all kinds of crap at our disposal, and we’re going to try and make sure this is the most fun you’ve had on a Sunday since Labor Day Weekend.
What are the Best Prop Bets for Week 5 NFL Games?
Daniel Jones – QB (Indianapolis Colts) vs Las Vegas Raiders
Prop Bet: Over 251.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115)
The Colts-Raiders matchup itself has some sneaky upside appeal, considering the total has jumped from 44.5 to 47.5 since the open, and the Colts are solid 7.5-point favorites. Enter in the fact that Jones has exceeded this mark of 251.5 total yards in each of his four games this season, and things are playing right into his hands.
Las Vegas hasn’t been great on defense, particularly against QBs, who have exceeded the 251.5 total-yard mark in three of the four games.
David Montgomery – RB (Detroit Lions) at Cincinnati Bengals
Prop Bet: Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
As double-digit favorites on the road, you have to imagine the Lions are going to control this matchup against the Bengals early and often. This would also be a great spot to get Montgomery going after a tough statistical start to the season. We have to cut the guy some slack because two of the four Lions’ opponents rank in the Top-5 of rushing defenses.
Well, that’s certainly the opposite of what Detroit will be facing on Sunday. Cincy has been bullied on the ground this season, allowing the second-most RB rushing yards (490) and RB rushing attempts (104) – you break that down and it’s 4.7 yards per carry. Given the extra opportunities in prime spots, Montgomery will smash past the 50.5-yard mark and have his best game of the season.
Dalton Kincaid – TE (Buffalo Bills) vs New England Patriots
Prop Bet: Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
The game script is big here because, according to the betting numbers, the Bills might find themselves in a closer game against the Patriots than people realize. New England opened as an 8.5-point underdog and has since improved to +7.5, while the total has increased from 46.5 to 49.5. This, at the very least, sets the expectation for a close, high-scoring game.
Kincaid is in line to ramp up the production against facing the Patriots, who have allowed three TEs to top the 33.5-yard mark in four games this season. The Bills’ offense has some randomness to it with the WRs, but Kincaid’s role is one of the few constants, along with James Cook at RB. In fact, Kincaid has long catches in the range of 18-28 in every game this season, so it’s possible that he only needs 2-3 grabs to get this job done. Kincaid had topped the 34.5-yard in his first three games before last week’s misnomer, due in part to controlling the clock on a much weaker opponent.
