It’s time for one of the best traditions of all, with NFL football on Thanksgiving Day! On this great holiday, we have three fantastic NFL matchups: the Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, the Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, and the Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens. All three games have major implications in the playoff picture, as only one of these teams (the Ravens) is a division leader, but four of the five teams are fighting for their playoff lives on this day.
As you gather round the family table, let’s all be thankful that we have this article to guide us on our way to Thanksgiving Day gridiron success. I have labeled the best prop bets to place for one player on each team playing in today’s games.
Let’s see what I’ve got in store for Romeo Doubs and David Montgomery in the Packers-Lions game, Travis Kelce and Dak Prescott in the Chiefs-Cowboys game, and Chase Brown and Mark Andrews in the Bengals-Ravens game. These are the picks that will make you the most popular family member at the table for years to come.
Best Player Prop Bets for Each Team on NFL Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 27)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5) – Total: 48.5
Pick: Romeo Doubs: Anytime TD (+170)
Now that the Packers are indoors, it’s time for them to start slinging the rock around against a Lions’ defense that gets toasted by opposing WRs. Of the 26 TDs scored against Detroit this season, 13 of them have come from the WR position (third-most in the NFL); there have also been 40 red zone targets thrown its way, and 29 of them went to WRs.
Doubs is absolutely dominating the Packers’ share of those red zone looks, with 10 on the season. The next closest (Savion Williams) has four, while everyone else on the team has two or fewer. Of course, the low numbers for the remaining Packers have to do with Tucker Kraft not playing (out for the season), but Doubs is the clear alpha now in the red zone if the Packers are throwing the ball.
Pick: David Montgomery: Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off a massive workload on Sunday with 26 touches (15 rush, 11 rec) for 264 total yards and three TDs. In fact, Gibbs has at least 19+ touches and 100+ total yards in each of the last three games, so I doubt the Lions will want to give Gibbs that type of workload on a short week.
The stage is set for fellow Lions RB David Montgomery to put some numbers up today. It is certainly intriguing that Detroit isn’t even a field-goal favorite in this matchup, which leads me to believe this team will be in pass-first mode more often than not. Montgomery has posted 10+ receiving yards in five of the last six games, and it seems like the opportunities will certainly be there; Green Bay is allowing the fifth-most receptions per game (5.1) and sixth-most targets (6.1) to the RB position.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys – Total: 52.5
Pick: Travis Kelce: 60+ Receiving Yards (-115)
Kelce may be needed more if the injuries to Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Xavier Worthy (ankle) wind up being more serious. Even if they’re good to go, the future Hall-of-Famer has a tasty matchup against a Dallas secondary that is allowing the third-most receptions per game (6.5) and fourth-most targets (8.7) to the TE position.
Dallas runs zone coverage just under 80% of the time, and Kelce is the clear-cut favorite for Patrick Mahomes in this spot. Kelce has team-highs in zone looks for receptions (36), targets (44), yards (497), and yards after catch (254).
The Cowboys have been great against the run since trading for Quinnen Williams, allowing a combined 29 yards on the ground to Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley. Look for the Chiefs to opt for the pass more, and for Kelce to be the main beneficiary.
Pick: Dak Prescott: Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (-odds)
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites on the road, so the most likely game script should also have the Cowboys opting to go pass-first. However, going against KC doesn’t always mean that “pass first” leads to a passing attempt. Against QBs this season, the Chiefs are allowing the most rushing attempts (5.9) and fifth-most rushing yards (24.2) to the position.
Each of the last four QBs to face KC have ran 3+ times; Dak has 4+ runs in each of his last five games, and in six of the last seven.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7) – Total: 51.5
Pick: Chase Brown: Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I don’t see any rhyme or reason to how the Bengals ever take the lead in this game, and that sets the stage for Brown to have a massive day catching the ball out of the backfield. This will be the first game back for QB Joe Burrow, so I’m inclined to believe there will be plenty of checkdowns in the process.
The Ravens have been fairly generous to opposing RBs in this instance, allowing the sixth-most targets per game (6.2), 11th-most receiving yards (33.4), and 12th-most receptions (4.4). Brown has 20+ receiving yards in four straight games, and Baltimore has allowed five of the last six RB1s it has faced to gain 20+ yards via the catch.
Pick: Mark Andrews: Anytime TD (+115)
Andrews let a TD go right through his arms on Sunday, but I’ve got a feeling Lamar Jackson will be looking his way once again. As referenced in the tweet above, you’ll see just how bad this Bengals’ defense has been against the TE position.
Let’s put this into easier context: Cincy has allowed the most targets per game (9.7) and receiving yards (80.8) to the TE position, along with the second-most receptions (6.6). If all of that wasn’t enough, this defense is also allowing the most red zone targets per game (2.4) to TEs.
Truth be told, the Bengals’ defense is quite putrid all around, so Andrews and the Ravens should be near the end zone all night long.
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