It’s time to open up my playbook on the best bets for Week 7 of the NFL season. As always, it’s important to hop on these NFL wagers early, considering sportsbooks will often move the lines more towards their favor, leaving us bettors in a compromising position as we inch closer to kick off on Sunday.
Good news, folks – I’ve got your back! Most of the numbers on these matchups are readily available by Tuesday, so I’ve identified those that have some tremendous value at their current numbers.
Hopefully, the sportsbooks don’t read this article before you do. I’ve got plenty of statistical backing for my claims, and even some off-the-wall thinking that helps in these scenarios.
In all walks of life, we make predictions because we believe we have seen enough data to support our theories. Now that we have arrived at Week 7, it means that we have six games of film, statistics, and trends for most teams in 2025.
Let’s put this knowledge to the test and get these three NFL Week 7 best bets in at their highest value.
What are the Best Bets for NFL Week 7?
Jacksonville Jaguars ML (+130) vs Los Angeles Rams
The Jags and Rams are crossing the pond for Sunday’s game, but it’s the Jags crossing the imaginary threshold on the spread, going from +3.5 to +2.5 (at some sportsbooks, not all). This is an incredibly vital move, considering 60% of the bets/money handle is in Jacksonville’s favor.
Since Week 2, every single Jags game has been within the margin of one-score/eight-or-fewer points. I believe we’ll be on the right side of that competitive spirit, and this is a familiar setting for the team; this will be the 12th trip Jacksonville has made to London, and they are 6-5 all-time there.
The Rams will almost certainly be without WR Puka Nacua (ankle), and that will be a huge loss since he had 9+ targets in every game prior to getting hurt in last week’s game. LA certainly has some capable replacements but, with traveling to another country, this is not the week you want to be trying new things.
Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (91.5), so that could put Matthew Stafford is some tough spots without his safety blanket.
Jonathan Taylor: Anytime Touchdown (-135) vs Los Angeles Chargers
I legitimately feel like we could get arrested for grand larceny on this wager. You’re telling me that Taylor, the NFL’s leading rusher in yards (603) and TDs (7), only has -135 odds to find paydirt on Sunday? Yikes.
Let’s lay it out, folks. The Chargers have given up back-to-back 2-TD performances to RBs Jacory Croskey-Merritt and De’Von Achane over the last two games. Both of those guys scored two rushing TDs each, but Taylor has also seen 4+ targets in each of his last four games, giving us an alternate route to the end zone, should that hurdle arise.
Obviously, the NFL’s leading rusher doesn’t need much of an introduction, but he has TDs in four of his last five games, with a pair of 3+ TD performances in the mix.
Even better for us, this Colts-Chargers total opened at 45.5 and has since risen as high as 48.5 at some sportsbooks. The scene is setting up nicely for Taylor, so get in on this before the odds move out of our favor.
Jaxson Dart: Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
If I told you there was a prop bet that has gone 6-for-6 this season, with an average clearing mark of nearly 13 yards, I assume you would be very interested. Well, let’s just say you’re all going to be big fans of the Broncos’ defense against the Giants this Sunday.
Not one QB has exceeded his rushing yards prop in a game against Denver this season. Last week, Justin Fields had a line of 43.5 rushing yards to hit and came the closest with only 31 on the ground. I’m not sure how Fields was able to get up from some of those hits on Sunday against the Broncos; this defense hits hard, and they are the deal!
The prior five QBs, which included Cam Ward, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, to face the Broncos COMBINED for 15 rushing yards.
Dart is going into the high altitude of Denver, one of the toughest road environments in the NFL, and doing it as a rookie makes me even more pessimistic about his chances. Not to mention, Dart has a whopping 30 rushes in his first three NFL starts, and you have to imagine his durability is declining. In that last game against the Eagles, he took a huge shot and had to leave the game briefly. It’s possible that Giants HC Brian Daboll comes up with a gameplan that keeps his QB on the field instead of taking even more chances.
