Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and I’m here to give you my best bets early in the week.

Many times, sportsbooks will change the odds in their favor once they realize the masses are heading in a particular direction. While it’s impossible to predict their exact movements, we can do our best to take advantage of some numbers before everyone else catches up to them.

I have identified quite a few mismatches and areas to target here in Week 6, including QBs like Justin Fields and Sam Darnold, as well as a 4-leg TD parlay that can more than quadruple your investment. Last week’s 4-leg TD parlay came one leg short, thanks to James Cook failing to find the end zone on Sunday Night Football. I won’t hold it against him. Probably. Maybe not.

Here are the best bets for NFL Week 6:

Justin Fields (NYJ) – Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

*Note: Game will be played on Sunday at 9:30 am ET/6:30 am PT

Fields is undoubtedly a very talented athlete, but he is facing a terrible matchup on Sunday against the Broncos.

Denver has faced five QBs this season – Cam Ward, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, Jake Browning, and Jalen Hurts. I think we’d all agree there are some rushing yards to be had amongst that group; they have a combined 15 rushing yards against the Broncos this season.

This is going to be a long day for the Jets’ offense, and a secret caveat here is that Fields could get benched if he gets off to a slow start. New York looked great in Week 3 with Tyrod Taylor under center, so this situation is very advantageous to us in a few ways.

Sam Darnold (SEA) – Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

I imagine the odds will start going against the bettors for this wager, so get this one in early. As of Wednesday, the Seahawks-Jags total is sitting pat at 46.5 points, and the biggest bets-to-money differential on the entire Week 6 board resides here – ~67% of bets to the under, ~82% of the money to the over.

This is great news for prop bettors in this game, as we’ll likely get a back-and-forth shootout. It wasn’t the case on Monday night, but the Jags had scored the first TD in each of their first four games, and that could very well be the case again with the Jags coming East for an early 1 pm game.

If this game script holds true to form, Darnold will be forced into more passing situations, and he already has 2+ passing TDs in three of his last four games. Because of their stout run defense, the Jags face the second-most pass attempts per game (39.4) and have allowed the fifth-most completions (24.5) and passing yards (260.4) per game.

A 4-Leg NFL Touchdown Parlay for week 6: JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs (+450)

Well, I certainly didn’t plan it like this, but we’ve got four RBs in prime position to find pay dirt – and all of their names begin with a “J”. That’s destiny, folks!

Make sure you get this one in early because it all begins with Dobbins taking on the Jets across the pond at 9:30 am ET. The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites, and this game script sets up perfectly for Dobbins, who has a TD in four of his last five games. New York has allowed an RB TD in all but one of its five games this season.

Williams finds himself in a game with a total that is rapidly increasing, going from the opening 46.5 to now 49.5, and it should be a lot more competitive than people realize. In all three of Dallas’ one-score games, Williams has gotten at least 64% of the team’s carries, and he’s been heavily involved in the passing game as well. The Panthers have allowed three RB TDs in their last two games, and Williams comes in with six TDs already on the young season.

Taylor has two games of 3+ TDs in his last three tries, and he is averaging 72% of the carries in the Colts’ backfield over his last four games. The Cardinals have been decent against the run, but Taylor can be useful in the passing game, as he’s snagged 3+ receptions in all but one game this season. Indy is a sizeable 6.5-point favorite, and Arizona has allowed 4 RB TDs in five games.

Lastly, Jacobs aims for a putrid Bengals’ defense that has some of the NFL’s worst metrics against the run. Cincy has already allowed eight RB TDs this season, and Jacobs has scored a TD in nine of his last 10 games – the only misnomer being a matchup against the elite Browns run defense.