In about a week, the College Football Playoff field will be finalized. Teams like Ohio State and Indiana are virtual locks, even if they’re set to face off. Those at the end of the top 12 and just outside it have to sweat it out. Do those teams sitting in the 13-16 range have any hope of getting into the field?
Analyzing fringe playoff teams in college football
The college teams ranked within the 10-16 range all should be holding their breaths a little bit. That’s not an ideal spot to be in, because you’re either in danger of being jumped and pushed out of the field or out of the field in the first place.
Right now, prior to the next official CFP ranking, that means the following teams are in jeopardy:
- Alabama
- BYU
- Miami
- Utah
- Vanderbilt
- Michigan
- Texas
Alabama is probably safe. They beat Auburn and secured a spot in the SEC Championship. Should they lose, however, to Georgia, it will get very dicey, but they are good enough to justify a much higher ranking, so perhaps that will buffer a potential loss next weekend. BYU won this week, but they face number five Texas Tech this week. They’re not as safe if they lose. They have two ranked wins, but losing twice to Texas Tech would not be ideal.
Miami is not in the ACC Championship, so its resume is complete. It’s highly likely that they’ll get left out due to the unique CFP rules. Miami is 2-1 in ranked games and lost to SMU, so it’s going to be a tough sell for the committee.
Utah is an interesting team. They’re just 1-2 in ranked games, and their season is done. They’re virtually guaranteed to miss out at this point. They don’t have the resume or the chance to improve it.
Vanderbilt is one of the most interesting teams in this race. They arguably have a better resume than Notre Dame, a team virtually locked in now, and some other teams in the top 12. They were a surprise team, but wins over Missouri and Tennessee are good. Their two losses are to Alabama and Texas, so it’s hard to really dock them for that. Still, without a game to play, their playoff hopes are on thin ice as well. It’s been a dream year for them, but unless all the teams ranked in their range that are playing this weekend lose, it’s not likely the committee will bump them up two spots.
Michigan is virtually out of it. They were ranked 15th before The Game on Saturday. A win would’ve propelled them into the conversation, since Ohio State is number one. But since they lost, and not exactly in close fashion, they’re likely to tumble into the 20s. That loss effectively ended their playoff hopes.
Texas, among all these teams, has the best shot to move up. They have a fantastic resume and the name-brand recognition that’s clearly helping the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They beat Vanderbilt, Texas A&M (the only team to do so), and Oklahoma. Losses to Georgia and Ohio State shouldn’t really count that much against them. The Florida loss is the big one. It’s not a good loss, and it gives them three, which makes it harder to push them over two-loss teams like Vanderbilt.
Either way, this week is going to be fascinating for these teams. They have the chance to get into the field and make some noise, but many of them will require some help. And when it’s all said and done, some of them will have legitimate complaints, and all of them will feel disgruntled no matter what.
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