We’re capping off the day’s slate with the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites, and the total is currently at 47.5 points.
As it stands now, both teams are out of the playoff hunt. The Vikings haven’t lived up to expectations throughout the season, while the Cowboys put up a good fight late that will likely amount to nothing.
Nevertheless, we’re expecting a fun night of football with a few areas to exploit in the betting markets. In this article, I have identified some plays that will haul in a profit, including one on the game spread, as well as two player props on George Pickens and Justin Jefferson.
Dallas Cowboys -5.5 (-110)
The Cowboys have been putting up points in bunches at home, averaging 32.7 PPG (third-best in the NFL). Although the Vikings pitched a shutout at home against the Commanders last week, I’m not too optimistic about their chances for this SNF matchup. Dak Prescott has been moving the ball with great regularity over the last few games, and there should be plenty of running lanes for Javonte Williams and Malik Davis to break free and keep moving the chains.
Last week, JJ McCarthy had one of the best games of his career, and it was heavily aided by a matchup against Washington’s league-worst pass defense. Dallas hasn’t been great against the pass this season, but I doubt they’ll have much trouble against Minnesota; perhaps Justin Jefferson gets some numbers in garbage time, but that’s about it. It should be a bend-but-don’t-break approach for the Cowboys’ defense, and I certainly see some turnovers on the horizon.
Dallas has scored 30+ points in three of its last four games, while Minnesota has a combined six points in its last two road games.
George Pickens: Anytime Touchdown (-105)
If you’re just like me, then you watched last week’s Cowboys-Lions game in agony that Pickens couldn’t get it going. Even when CeeDee Lamb left the game in the first half, Detroit did everything it could to make sure Pickens was not the player who beat them.
As of Wednesday, Lamb was practicing in a solid capacity, so I assume he’s ready to go tonight – and that would give Pickens more room to operate against single coverage. Pickens didn’t exactly take that lack of production against the Lions too well. I would expect Dak to be looking his way quite a bit tonight in order to make up for last week.
Justin Jefferson: 60+ Receiving Yards (-125)
It has been rough sledding for Jefferson, who has topped 60+ receiving yards only once (ONCE!!!) in the last six games. That is criminal! It does go to show you just how bad Minnesota’s passing game is these days, but we did see McCarthy have some success against a bad pass defense –this week, he gets a matchup against a Cowboys’ defense allowing the third-most receiving yards per game (161) to the WR position.
I’m not saying it’s going to be a 300-yard day for McCarthy, but the Vikings will certainly be in plenty of passing situations tonight. It’s worth noting that WR Jordan Addison and TE TJ Hockenson are both banged up, and that will certainly force more targets Jefferson’s way.
