The story is beginning to unfold in the American League Championship Series, and that presents us with some great prop bets to explore for this Game 3 matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners.
With the scene shifting out West for the ALCS, the Mariners have a 2-0 lead heading back home, where a rawkus Seattle crowd will be on the edge of their seats for each pitch. If the Mariners win two games, especially over these next three days, the city of Seattle will have a celebration to compares to none.
Even with great players in its history, including Ken Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro Suzuki, Felix Hernandez, Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner – the Mariners have never made it to the World Series.
When we talk about this Game 3 matchup, all of that history matters tonight. This city is ready to lose its collective voice if it means Seattle will be playing in the World Series. You have to give a huge edge to Mariners’ hitters and, even the starting pitcher, George Kirby, who was huge in the ALDS Game 5 winner-take-all matchup against the Tigers. Tonight, Kirby will be opposed on the mound by Shane Bieber of the Blue Jays.
The Mariners (-135) are the favorites in Game 3 of the ALCS hovering around 6.5 to 7 runs, depending which sportsbook you are looking at. Let’s get into what the best prop bets are for tonight’s Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS Game 3 matchup:
George Kirby: Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-102)
How would you like to be George Kirby? On Friday, he made it out alive in a head-to-head matchup against MLB’s best pitcher, Tarik Skubal, in a do-or-die situation. Tonight, he’s on the mound for a game that could put his team in a 3-0 lead, one win away from reaching the World Series. No pressure at all, kid.
The good news is that we know Kirby can handle the pressure. In the ALDS Game 5 against the Tigers, he allowed three hits/one run over five innings while striking out six before leaving the game with the lead. And that performance wasn’t just some luck-of-the-draw heroism; Kirby has been at this for weeks. Over his last five starts (dating back to the regular season), Kirby has gone 5+ innings, while allowing two runs or fewer and striking out six in all of them.
Kirby has maxed out at five innings in each of his last three starts, giving us fewer chances to go over the 1.5 mark.
Randy Arozarena: Over 1.5 Strikeouts (+135)
This is a pure stats-based play, and we’re getting some nice odds to boot. Arozarena has nine plate appearances against Shane Bieber lifetime, striking out in five of them.
Even worse, Arozarena has struck out 2+ times in five of his last six games, including each of the last three.
Anthony Santander: Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115)
As much as I like Kirby to shut it down tonight, no one is perfect, and of course he’s going to give up a few hits here and there. Santander is the most likely candidate to have success against Kirby, just as he’s done over his career, going 6-for-15 with two homers and only two punchouts.
Santander has eclipsed the 0.5 mark on H/R/RBI in four of his last five games, and he’s done it in 12 of his last 15 meetings against the Mariners.
