The NFL Week 17 slate has no shortage of huge matchups, with a more than a few featuring playoff hopeful teams. Well, it must be saving one of the best for last, as we’ll see the New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders – a matchup that will likely determine who gets the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Monday), the Giants are 1.5-point favorites against the Raiders. Both teams are coming off close losses on Sunday, with New York falling at home to the Minnesota Vikings by the score of 16-13, while Las Vegas nearly upset the Houston Texans, losing 23-21.
We have seen this scenario play out in real-time before, with some of the worst teams facing off late in the season and knowing fully what’s at stake. Without a lottery system in place, this scenario certainly favors the losers of these particular matchups.
Late in the 2020 season, the New York Jets beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, who then drafted Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick; the Jets wound up with Zach Wilson. In 2023, the Giants beat the Washington Commanders late in the season; Washington wound up taking Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick; New York took Malik Nabers.
Some of these stories are fascinating, and you have to wonder if the Giants don’t want to get burned again, thus easing up on the reigns this Sunday.
2026 NFL Draft: Losing Could be Winning
In the NFL, championships are built through drafting, and the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft could be the turning point for a few select franchises. The projected No. 1 overall pick is expected to be QB Fernando Mendoza from Indiana University.
While the Giants don’t necessarily need a signal-caller, they will certainly evaluate their options, and with the most likely outcome being a trade that acquires them numerous current and future first-round picks.
For the Raiders, the No. 1 pick would likely mean that Mendoza is coming to Sin City. This franchise, whether it’s been in Oakland or Vegas, has been looking for a franchise QB to pair along with RB Ashton Jeanty, whom they drafted in last year’s draft with the No. 6 overall pick.
Giants & Raiders Current Positions for 2026 NFL Draft
Currently, the Raiders and Giants are neck-and-neck for the first two picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, but it can’t stay that way forever. Unless, in the unlikely event of a tie, the Raiders would hold that tiebreaker through strength of schedule (SOS), the team with the lowest SOS gets the higher pick.
The loser’s path to No. 1 becomes clearer because a defeat here would give them sole possession of the basement heading into Week 18, assuming the results from other games hold true to form. For instance, if the Giants lose on Sunday, they’d drop to 2-14, while a Raiders’ win pushes them to 3-13.
As of now, there are four other teams – Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets – with three wins (currently 3-12). A win for either side puts them into this grouping, where the tiebreaks really come into play.
Draft Needs for Giants & Raiders
The Giants have been looking for help on their porous offensive line for years, so trading back to take one here would help greatly. New York found a diamond in the rough in Jaxson Dart, and it would make sense to let him cook with Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers, who both suffered season-ending injuries early.
As for the Raiders, the QB position has eluded this franchise for many years. Mendoza has been heralded as a “can’t miss” prospect because of his football IQ and quick-thinking decision making. Of course, Las Vegas needs help in a lot of different areas, but Rome wasn’t built in a day.
Nevertheless, it will be a pivotal moment in the history of each franchise come April 2026. The question then will be: will they make the right decision? Recent history has favored the Giants in that regard, but the same cannot be said for the Raiders.
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