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Every year, the NFL draft holds countless surprises. Teams have wildly different perspectives from the analysts and experts, and it always leads to some shocking picks. Some age well, and some do not. This year, there wasn’t quite a Michael Penix top-10 sort of surprise, but there were some interesting outcomes on night one.
Surprises from NFL draft first round
Arvell Reese falling to fifth
A top defender being drafted fifth in the draft isn’t really a slide, but Arvell Reese is different, and this was a different draft. He was considered by ESPN and plenty of other outlets to be the best overall prospect, which makes it a stunner that he fell to fifth. Not going first over Fernando Mendoza makes sense, but everything after that was extremely surprising.
Jeremiyah Love third overall
Because of the rookie wage scale, Jeremiyah Love is now the highest-paid running back in football in terms of guaranteed money. He’s never taken a single NFL snap. This talk about him not just being a running back is nonsense, too. The absolute best running backs in the league are similar to the worst qualified receivers in terms of yards per routes run, not from the backfield. Love is a running back, and this is a stunning reach.
Caleb Downs falling outside the top 10
Positional value, of which safeties have little of, was a topic of discussion, but if Jeremiyah Love can go top-three, then Caleb Downs should’ve been a higher pick. His going 11th is arguably the steal of the draft. He has some mild injury concerns, but he should’ve been picked well before his slot. At least four of the previous six selections are worse because Downs is that special.
A run on tackles
There is always a tackle tax in the NFL draft. It’s a highly important position, and, like quarterbacks, they tend to get overdrafted. Teams weren’t smart about it this year, either. It started with the Browns trading down to ninth for Spencer Fano. The Giants followed with Francis Mauigoa, then the Dolphins with Kadyn Proctor. The Lions (17th), Panthers (19th), Steelers (21st), and Patriots (28th) all took tackles to really put a hurting on the depth in this class.
Ty Simpson 13th overall
It makes perfect sense for the Rams to target a successor for Matthew Stafford, who is over 40, in the NFL draft. It wouldn’t even be a horrible idea to target Ty Simpson, the consensus QB2, who some have claimed is better than Fernando Mendoza. But drafting Simpson, who was thought to be the most likely prospect to slide out of round 1, with the 13th pick is astonishing from a typically brilliant organization.
Makai Lemon 20th overall
Makai Lemon was considered a top-10 prospect. He also does not have any major question marks. Plus, wide receiver is not a position that typically sees draft slides. His college production was incredible. Yet, he slid way further than he should’ve. He landed 20th. The Eagles happily traded up to get him after the Panthers surprisingly passed on him for Monroe Freeling. Plenty of other teams let him slide, but that one in particular was a big shock.
The Texans and Cowboys doing the right things
The Texas football teams have not had great track records in various areas. The Cowboys are pretty bad at drafting lately. The Texans have seemed unfeeling towards the growing needs on the offensive line. But the other night, the Texans traded down and drafted a guard. The Cowboys traded up for Caleb Downs and down for Malachi Lawrence, two home-run moves that address their biggest need: defense.
