The 2025 NFL season delivered plenty of surprises, but few were as eye-opening as the holiday performance of favorites in high-profile matchups. Traditionally, Thanksgiving and Christmas Day games feature strong teams in favorable spots, often leading to expectations of dominance. However, the script flipped dramatically this year.
Favorites on these festive days went a staggering 0-6 against the spread (ATS), meaning none covered their point spreads across the six games. From close calls to blowout misses, underdogs capitalized on holiday chaos, home-field energy, divisional rivalries, and perhaps echoing a dose of Herm Edwards’ sentiments, “You play… to win… the game!”
This trend captured the attention of the betting world, with analysts like John Ewing of BetMGM highlighting the skid in a viral post that listed every favorite failing to cover. Bettors backing the underdogs on these holidays cashed in big, while those going with the favorites watched their money disappear faster than the turkey at the table.
Thanksgiving 2025: Underdogs Feast on Favorites
Thanksgiving Day 2025 featured the classic tripleheader, with the Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3), the Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys, and the Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5).
All three favorites not only failed to cover but lost the games outright. When we look back on these favorites losing, we can point back to Week 14 being the unraveling for all of them. The Lions and Chiefs are mathematically eliminated heading into the regular season finale, while a Ravens’ loss would land them in the same bucket.
The Lions were three-point favorites against the Packers at Ford Field. Detroit was dealt a bad hand early, as WR Amon-Ra St. Brown left the game in the first quarter. It didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things with Green Bay’s Jordan Love tossing four TDs in the 31-28 win. The Lions have gone 1-4 in their last five games.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs were 3.5-point favorites against the Cowboys at Jerry World. Kansas City, which was a perennial Super Bowl favorite at one point, blew a strong finish and faltered down the stretch against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Dallas also got a 31-28 win on this day, and that would send the Chiefs freefalling to a losing streak that is currently at five games.
The nightcap saw the Ravens as hefty -7.5 favorites over the Bengals. Baltimore’s potent offense and defense were expected to overwhelm Cincinnati, which got Joe Burrow back for the first time in months. That move was exactly what the doctor ordered, and the Bengals dominated in a 32-14 win.
Christmas 2025: More Holiday Heartbreak for Favorites
The NFL’s expanded Christmas slate in 2025 brought three more games: the Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) at Washington Commanders, the Detroit Lions (-7) at Minnesota Vikings, and the Denver Broncos (-13.5) at Kansas City Chiefs.
Once again, favorites went 0-3 ATS, completing the 0-6 holiday disaster.
The Cowboys opened as -8.5 favorites on the road against the Commanders. Washington, often an underdog in this rivalry, played inspired football at home. Typically, road favorites have some trouble against divisional opponents, but Dallas got off to a 21-3 lead. The Commanders nibbled their way back into covering the spread with a late 51-yard field goal by Jake Moody.
Detroit, fresh off its Thanksgiving disappointment, traveled to Minnesota as 7.5-point favorites. The Lions’ recent dominance over the Vikings made them heavy chalk, but the Vikings turned the tables with some outstanding defense. Minnesota pulled the double banger by covering the spread and winning the game outright, 23-10. The loss eliminated Detroit from playoff contention.
The primetime finale pitted the Broncos as massive 13.5-point favorites at the Chiefs. Denver’s strong season positioned them as a blowout candidate against a struggling Kansas City squad without the great Patrick Mahomes. Yet, the Chiefs, even with adversity, kept it within the number.
How to Bet on Holidays Going Forward
This Christmas sweep reinforced the message: holidays bring unpredictability. Divisional foes, short weeks, emotional stakes, and potential letdowns turned favorites into liabilities.
In a season full of twists, the 0-6 ATS mark for NFL holiday favorites in 2025 stands out as a cautionary tale for bettors. When the calendar hits Thanksgiving and Christmas, sometimes the best play is fading the public favorites and embracing the underdog spirit.
The dogs were indeed made to bark for the holidays this year.
Related Posts
