Our first dose of October football is here, as Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with the San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. While that TNF game will certainly be a fun watch, I’ve got my sights set on Sunday’s games, where all of this week’s best bets will come from.

By now, we have seen quite a bit from each team, and true colors are starting to emerge. In this glorious age of data, I have sorted through the most extensive data to give you the best shot at winning some money this Sunday.

There’s nothing better than going into Monday as a winner, so I apologize in advance to all the Jets, Saints, and Titans fans out there who don’t know what that feels like yet this season. Too soon?

Let’s have a look at the best bets from Week 5 of the NFL season:

Carolina Panthers +1 (-110) over Miami Dolphins

I know, it sounds ridiculous that a 1-3 team is considered a best bet, but the Panthers are playing another 1-3 team on slightly shorter rest. When looking at this line, it feels like a layup going with the Dolphins, who looked great (albeit against the Jets) on Monday Night Football. Miami did lose star WR Tyreek Hill for the season to a knee injury in that game, and that’s a massive loss for a team that can use all the help they can get.

The one area of major concern for the Dolphins is their defense, which is allowing the seventh-most total yards per game (378.8) early on.  Before Monday’s win, Miami had allowed 30+ points in all three games, and had it not been for a Jets’ goal line fumble, we’re talking at least 28 points allowed in every game. The Dolphins are winless in two road games, while the Panthers clobbered the Falcons 30-0 in their only home game this season.

We are also seeing the spread and moneyline move more in Carolina’s favor, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if they wound up being the slight favorite on Sunday.

Jakobi Myers (LV): Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

The Colts’ secondary has been shredded by opposing WRs this season, allowing the second-most receptions (58) and touchdown (6), the third-most yards after catch (270). Myers is in a fantastic spot to smash through this 55.5-yard mark, as the Raiders are heavy on underdogs on the road; if the game goes according to plan, they’ll be in more passing situations. This has not been a tough mark for Myers to hit in recent memory, as he has gone over 55.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games.

4-Leg Touchdown Parlay: James Cook + Jahmyr Gibbs + Jonathan Taylor + Garrett Wilson (+725)

Alright, let’s spread this one out and have some fun from the early afternoon until primetime. I have already hit two different 4-legger TD parlays this season (Weeks 2 and 3), so let’s stick with the magic number here.

We’ll start with Jonathan Taylor early in the 1:00 window, as he goes against a Raiders team allowing the eighth-most yards per carry; they have also given up three RB rushing TDs here in the last two games. The Colts are a heavy 7.5-point favorite at home, indicating they should have the lead early and often, leading to more opportunities for Taylor to get into the endzone.

Garrett Wilson has a dream matchup against a Cowboys’ defense that has allowed nine receiving TDs to WRs (most in the NFL). In fact, Romeo Doubs (GB) just hit paydirt three times against Dallas last week, and fellow NY WR Malik Nabers found the endzone twice against them in Week 2. Wilson is basically the only show in town for the Jets’ aerial attack, as evidenced by his massive 35.5% team target share. The total in this game increased to 47.5, from the original 44.5, lending some optimism that we’ll see quite a few TDs in the game, increasing Wilson’s chances even more.

Jahmyr Gibbs will take aim at a Bengals’ defense that has allowed the third-most total yards per game (397.8) in the NFL. The Lions are double-digit favorites on the road, so he should have plenty of chances to score on Sunday. Cincinnati has allowed six total TDs (3 rush, 3 pass) to opposing RBs this season, and Gibbs will certainly be used in the Lions’ short-to-intermediate passing game. There’s a good reason Gibbs has the highest odds (-215) of any NFL player to score a TD on the entire Week 5 slate.

If this thing goes all the way, we’ll have to wait… all the way… until Sunday Night Football as James Cook and the Bills take on the Patriots. This game also has an increased total, going from 46.5 to 49.5, giving Cook a more hopeful outlook to find the endzone. While the Patriots have been stingy (allowed only two RB TDs), this one is all about Cook, who has found paydirt in 16 of his last 20 games dating back to last season – including twice against the Pats.