Sunday Night Football caps off an exciting Sunday of Week 16 action, with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the New England Patriots under the primetime lights. The Ravens are three-point favorites, and the total is currently set at 43.5
With both teams fighting for playoff positioning, we’re expecting to see one of the most exciting games of the season. From Baltimore’s versatile rushing attack to New England’s emerging young receivers, there are several player props worth considering as you build your Sunday night card.
In the following sections, I’ll break down our favorite bets for the evening, focusing on key contributors who could play pivotal roles. I will break down a few overs you can take tonight on Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and DeMario Douglas.
Let’s dive into the numbers!
Lamar Jackson: Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Are we getting the Jackson flu game?! He missed Wednesday’s practice, but it’s all systems go here for the Ravens’ signal-caller. This number for Jackson opened at 30.5 yards, so I feel like we’re barking up the right tree here.
I found a great stat for QBs going against the Patriots this season: there were three instances of QBs possessing a rushing prop of 30.5+ yards (Josh Allen x2, Justin Fields), and all three cleared the mark by a country mile.
Jackson is starting to get back in the groove with his legs, rushing for 4.5, 6.1, and 13 YPC over the last three games. And this comes after only rushing for 2.8 YPC or fewer in four of his five previous games.
Zay Flowers: Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Back to that Ravens’ rushing attack from an unlikely source. Flowers has actually been active in the run game, getting a rushing attempt in five of the last eight games.
It does suck that we’ll probably only get one crack at this thing, but Flowers has gained positive yardage every time he touched the ball on a running attempt in that aforementioned span. If you’re going to have success against the Pats, it feels like a good idea to come to this knife fight with a trick up your sleeve.
DeMario Douglas: Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
There are a few reasons Douglas was held without a single target last game. For one, the Patriots ran only 51 plays (second-lowest this season), leading to only 10 snaps for Douglas. To put that in perspective, he had 22 (third-highest this season) the game before.
While Douglas operates as New England’s WR4, he does hold some upside tonight. Opposing offenses have found much more success passing the ball, and it would seem like a good idea to run more plays out of the spread.
Despite such low snap numbers, Douglas had already been quite efficient with 30+ receiving yards six straight games – and in seven of his last eight. The Patriots are three-point underdogs in this game, so the opportunities to catch passes should be there.
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