A recent tweet from Will Burchfield made light of the fact that the Detroit Lions could be the first NFL team in 17 years to lead the league points and still miss the playoffs.
Burchfield noted that the Lions are on track for this dubious distinction, last achieved by the 2008 New Orleans Saints. In the seasons since, every league-leading scoring offense has not only made the postseason but won its division, often finishing with stellar records like 12-5, 13-3, or better.
It might seem unbelievable, but this is the reality of today’s NFL. While the classic saying, “defense wins championships,” still holds weight, the league has made several rule changes in recent years that favor offenses. These changes have resulted in more high-scoring games and teams reaping the benefits.
With an 8-6 record, Detroit finds itself in a situation that doesn’t happen often. Their playoff hopes aren’t entirely in their own hands, as they will depend not just on their own performance, but also on the outcomes of other NFL games this weekend and over the final two weeks. Let’s take a closer look at how this could play out.
Could The Lions Miss the NFL Playoffs Despite Scoring the Most Points?
Heck yeah, man. In fact, the ESPN FPI projection shows the Lions as only having a 36% chance of making the NFL Playoffs – so, there’s a highly likely chance this all happens.
Going into Week 16, the Lions’ 8-6 record puts them in the 8-seed, one spot away from making it into the postseason. In the 7-seed, sit the Green Bay Packers (9-4-1), who are on the road on Saturday against the 2-seeded Chicago Bears (10-4); the Bears are currently listed as a 1.5-point favorite.
No matter what happens, the road ahead will be challenging. If Chicago wins, Detroit will move within half a game of Green Bay. However, the Packers hold an advantage, having won both regular-season meetings against the Lions, and carrying a tie instead of a loss on their record.
It’s also important to point out that the Bears face a tough schedule, with upcoming games against the Packers (home), 49ers (road), and Lions (home) – none of which are easy matchups. If Chicago loses all three and Detroit finishes strong, that could be the Lions’ best chance to secure a playoff spot.
Lions’ Offensive Prowess
The Lions’ offense has been nothing short of spectacular, leading the NFL with 428 points scored through 14 games (30 points per game). This explosive attack, powered by QB Jared Goff, RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and WRs like Amon-Ra St. Brown, has kept Detroit in contention despite those defensive woes.
Detroit’s defense has been ravaged by injuries and inconsistencies, allowing opponents to rack up yards and points at an alarming rate. In their recent 41-34 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the defensive struggles were laid bare. Three straight three-and-outs by the offense in the third quarter didn’t help, but the unit’s inability to get stops has been the recurring theme.
Historical Precedent in the NFL
Historically, leading the league in scoring is a strong predictor of postseason success. Since the NFL’s modern era, all of these league-leading teams are almost guaranteed a playoff berth, often as division winners with double-digit victories.
If the Lions hold onto their scoring lead, it will cement a bittersweet legacy for this offense. It would highlight the brilliance of guys like Gibbs and St. Brown, while several players battled through injuries, but it also serves as a cautionary tale. In the NFL, fireworks on offense alone aren’t enough without a defense to contain the opposition.
As the season winds down, Lions fans are left hoping for a turnaround, and maybe even a miracle or two that sneaks them into the dance. No one wants to face this high-powered offense in the postseason, even if it comes in the brutal winter conditions.
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