MLB free agency is officially underway, although it is notoriously one of the slowest free agent periods in all of sports. Some of the biggest stars won’t sign until Spring Training is here, and even those who get it done sooner will remain free agents probably through the new year. With that said, the first step is for teams to decide whether or not to extend the qualifying offer, which they did yesterday. Here’s who got the offer and where they might end up.

Predicting where top free agents will go after qualifying offers go out

A qualifying offer is something teams give players who are entering free agency. It essentially locks them in on a one-year, $22 million deal. The catch is if they sign elsewhere, which leads the team they’re exiting to get a compensatory draft pick. For example, when Kyle Tucker leaves the Chicago Cubs, they’ll get a draft pick. Teams often don’t extend the offer, though, because it could end up being more costly than a player is worth.

The 13 who did receive the offer are:

• Kyle Tucker
• Trent Grisham
• Bo Bichette
• Framber Valdez
• Dylan Cease
• Ranger Suarez
• Edwin Diaz
• Gleyber Torres
• Brandon Woodruff
• Zac Gallen
• Shota Imanaga
• Michael King

These, with few exceptions like Cody Bellinger, are the top free agents, which is usually the case. The best free agents are a flight risk, and they’re worth more than $22 million, so teams want the compensation for their loss. Here’s where each of these stars could end up.

Kyle Tucker: New York Yankees

Cody Bellinger is gone, and Trent Grisham may be gone as well. The Yankees can’t really afford to roll with a Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, and Aaron Judge outfield, as Dominguez is a horrible defender and Jones hasn’t even debuted. That makes Tucker a smart signing, but it’s also a need. The Yankees love left-handed hitting, and they just saw their division rival go to the World Series and the big-spending Dodgers win it all twice in a row. It’s time to make another huge move, and this sets them up with a younger player for after Judge and others age out.

Trent Grisham: New York Mets

The Mets unfathomably missed the playoffs, so expect them to be pretty active. They’ll likely go after Tucker, too, but when they miss out, they can pivot to Juan Soto’s former teammate. Grisham’s not likely to repeat his 2025 offensive performance, but he showed he can hit under the right circumstances and that he’s clutch. The Mets could use that, and he’ll save some money that they can use to upgrade other areas.

Bo Bichette: Toronto Blue Jays

It is really hard to imagine Bo Bichette going anywhere now. He hit very well last year as the Jays went to the World Series. They won’t want to stomach a Game 7 loss like that without doing something, but they’re not exactly a franchise built on big spending. It makes much more sense to keep their own, even if Bichette will probably cost a pretty penny. They know he’s good and that he works in their lineup, so there’s very little chance they’ll let him go.

Framber Valdez: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles were poised to be a contender for a while with young talent galore, but it fell apart. They have zero pitching, so they’re going to need someone reliable. Framber Valdez may be older and not as strikeout-heavy as others on the market, but he’s as reliable as it gets and will be great for their young staff.

Dylan Cease: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ window is now, and they are likely losing Shota Imanaga after he declined his option. That leaves a hole in their rotation, one that could be filled with Dylan Cease. He’s a bit volatile, but when he’s on, he’s able to strike out batters like so few others.

Ranger Suarez: Philadelphia Phillies

For now, the Phillies have very little young talent, so their window is closing. Until it’s shut, though, they’ve got to keep trying with this corps, so it’s hard to imagine them letting one of their stronger pitchers go. Suarez will have a market, but Philadelphia will want and need him more.

Edwin Diaz: Boston Red Sox

After a dream season, the Boston Red Sox should probably go out and spend some money. They can’t expect a repeat season from an aging Aroldis Chapman, so buffing up the bullpen makes the most sense. Having Chapman and Edwin Diaz would make a nasty one-two punch.

Gleyber Torres: San Francisco Giants

The Giants need some offensive help. While Gleyber Torres is not a good defender whatsoever, the one thing he can do is hit. San Francisco has watched its rival win two World Series in a row and has slipped behind San Diego, too, so a move is highly necessary. This one makes the most sense.

Brandon Woodruff: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers typically don’t retain their own talent, but it would be hard to justify following such a good season by letting key players walk. Brandon Woodruff is not an ace, but he obviously slots in so well in Milwaukee’s rotation.

Zac Gallen: Los Angeles Angels

Until Mike Trout is gone, the Angels must keep going for it. And the best way to do that is by buffing up the pitching rotation, and Zac Gallen would be a great addition. He’s not as flashy as some others on the market, but that might help the Angels sneak in under the radar and bring him in.

Shota Imanaga: Arizona Diamondbacks

With Zac Gallen potentially leaving, the Diamondbacks will have a hole to fill. Their offense remains stout, so all they really need to do is address the pitching, and while Shota Imanaga isn’t necessarily an upgrade on Gallen, he’s not really a downgrade, either.

Michael King: New York Mets

Michael King, a former Yankee, knows how to pitch in New York. The Mets, as mentioned, will be desperate to fix what went wrong in 2025, and that was largely pitching. The rotation fell apart, so adding someone like King should be high on the to-do list.