We’ll cap off NFL Week 5 with the Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chiefs have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning each of the last eight times. KC has gotten it done by putting points up, with 27+ points in four of the last five meetings.

Given that information, it was certainly intriguing to see the Jaguars’ spread improve from +4.5 at the open to +3.5 currently. Although, Jacksonville is a much-improved team under first-year head coach Liam Cohen, as evidenced by winning outright on the road at San Francisco last week.

Movement on the total is certainly raising some eyebrows here, dropping from 47.5 at the open to 46 or 45.5 at most sportsbooks. What is particularly interesting here is that despite the downward total, we’re seeing about 2/3 of the money go to the over, as opposed to the 50/50 split with bets placed.

This is going to be a close, back-and-back forth (potentially high-scoring) battle tonight here on Monday Night Football, and you can’t ask for anything more as a bettor. Plenty of angles to look at here, but I’ll narrow it down to my best three bets for the Jaguars-Chiefs

What are the Best Bets for the Chiefs-Jaguars Monday Night Football?

Travis Etienne: Anytime TD (+110)

KC has allowed an opposing RB to reach the end zone in each of its last three games, and I fully expect Etienne to make it four in a row. One big aspect to look at could be the availability of RB2 Bhayshul Tuten, who is listed as questionable and only logged in a limited practice on Thursday. If he is unable to go, or limited, that sets up Etienne for a bell cow-type role here on Monday night.

Travis Kelce: Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Let’s keep it in the Travis family, but we’re moving over to the other sideline for this one. The big Kelce game is incoming any week now, and while this won’t be an easy matchup, it is one where he should get a couple extra looks.

Each of the last two TE1s (Dalton Schultz, Jake Tonges) to face the Jags saw 5+ targets and 39+ receiving yards, and Kelce is certainly better than either of those players, as well as having a much better QB throwing to them. Nevertheless, KC is getting healthier at WR on the outside, meaning that teams can’t focus on Kelce as much as they have been the last few weeks. Kelce does have an inflated 17.5-yard mark on his longest reception prop, so it’s possible that we cut into the 40.5 yards on just one catch tonight!

Marquise Brown: 5+ Receptions (+140)

I’m taking the alt line on Brown tonight, given the tough matchup KC faces on the ground tonight. Jacksonville has been solid against the run, so we should expect to see Patrick Mahomes try and air it out some more tonight.

Brown wasn’t needed much in the Chiefs’ blowout win against the Ravens last week, but he’s been fairly productive in this offense. In fact, Brown has been targeted 5+ times in each game this season, including a whopping 16 targets in Week 1 against the Chargers.