The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in an AFC East divisional matchup on Sunday Night Football. All of the sportsbooks in the industry are having a hard time nailing down a universal spread on this game, as we’re seeing the Bills favored anywhere from 7.5 to 8.5, depending on where you’re looking.
Judging from the upward movement on the opening total of 46.5, we are now seeing the total anywhere from 48.5 to 49.5 points. Even better, there’s a nice differential of bets placed (60% to the under) to money handle (63% to the over), and that is almost always a glowing indicator of success.
With all of that being said, we could see a close, high-scoring game, and that certainly makes it more rewarding for prop bettors in the national stand-alone game to cap off this Sunday.
Below, I have laid out my best bets for the Patriots-Bills Sunday Night Football matchup:
Best Bets for Patriots-Bills Sunday Night Football
Over 48.5 Points (-125)
Depending on which sportsbook you’re at, you may have to buy down to 48.5, but it could certainly be worth it. If you go with the current 49.5 total, you’ll need to get seven TDs and a FG scored in the game, or something along those lines that will make your life difficult.
However, if you go with 48.5, you give yourself a few additional off-ramps to come away with the victory. Seven TD (+XPs) would cross us over the finish line, and a 24-24 game heading into overtime would put us in a phenomenal spot as well.
As for the teams themselves, Buffalo has scored 30+ points in each game this season, while New England has 30+ in two of its last three tries. In the last five Patriots-Bills meetings, both teams have scored 20+ points in all but one of those.
Dalton Kincaid – Longest Reception: Over 16.5 Yards (-105)
Kincaid wasn’t needed much in the Bills’ win last week against the Saints. Given what we’re expecting from the game script (close, high-scoring game), we should see Kincaid back up to his usual standards. It certainly helps that Kincaid will have one of the best QBs (Josh Allen) slinging him the rock.
The longest reception angle is the one I want to attack here, considering Kincaid has gone over this number of 15.5 in all four games this season. This matches up well against a Patriots defense that has allowed catches of 12, 15, 21, and 38 yards to the TE position so far this season.
James Cook: Over 2.5 Receptions (+125)
We’re getting a great number here on Cook, who has been involved more in the passing game recently. In fact, Cook has exceeded 2.5 catches in all but one of the Bills’ four games this season, and in five of his last six – dating back to last season’s playoffs.
The Patriots have been quite generous allowing RB receptions, allowing 5.3 per game (7th most in the NFL) this season. And it makes sense, considering New England’s run defense is allowing 3.3 yards per carry (T-2nd fewest in the NFL). This means opposing teams need to be creative in getting their RB the ball against the Patriots, and right now, that means involving them in the passing game.
